they are who we thought they were....

uncloned · December 08, 2009, 14:25:36

I've stated my point.

In short - the days of owing a general purpose computer you can easily modify in software and hardware are probably numbered.

uncloned · December 08, 2009, 14:38:40

don't forget cloud computing means centralization and control of everyone.

Isn't that the perfect way to stop piracy, child p0rn, terrorists, dissenting opinions, etc, in the minds of the authorities?

The paradigm shift is back to the days of "big iron" mainframe computers.

I was intimately involved in the battle between mainframe and PC back in the late 80's, early 90's at a big company I worked at. Security, liability of warez, p0rn, etc. were all arguments for retaining control.

What this company did - after a few golden years of PC usage, was crippling their PCs - they ran images off servers - which was horribly slow in the 90's. Now many companies run hybrid systems - like using Citrix to serve applications; you see you can save money by having people share a copy of Word - one license spread between 2 or more "light" users. Another company I worked at, more recently, only stored applications locally (site wide license) but all data was on servers (the cloud) - this was nice when you had to work at another location. But it also meant they could view everything you have stored on your work computer. And literally they had processes that ran nightly looking for MP3's, jpegs, etc. etc. Oh - and Windows didn't let you install *any* additional applications locally. And people did get disciplined for stuff stored in the cloud.

So this cloud computing thing is already happening in business at the bigger places. And there is a whole host of (bad) reasons to do this to the public. You of all people know the banging of the drum by music, movie, software copyright representatives. Also the increasingly stringent laws being passed - like the "3 strikes and you are out" movement sweeping european governments.

Don't you think the RIAA would like to see us being incapable of creating a alternative to their product? All companies like this want to do is exploit. Morals are not really a consideration...

PPH · December 08, 2009, 14:53:12

Quote from: "uncloned"LV

The computer is becoming a cheap appliance. Probably a part of a TV. And by being cheap not be very powerful or have much if any local storage. Very easily I can see - TV/computer for the family + a personal smartphone computer.

Home computers started as a hobbyist endeavor - now it is becoming a necessity and the race is on to simplify and cheapen it. The general public has no need to program a general purpose computer. You and I are different in our use of a computer from the general public. Most people do not need the power for DAWs or edit video. As time goes on thin clients for cloud computing become typical and general purpose computers will become very expensive and out of reach for most people.

Some people need powerful computers and some people don't. Cloud computing is suitable for some and not suitable for others. For businesses, it's good because they have the need to have collaborative tools, and could computing lends itself to that kind of thing.

So, cloud computing will be used for some things, and won't for others. I don't see why powerful computers will become expensive. Yeah, in comparison with a netbook, a desktop computer is expensive (not that much, though). But they won't be out of reach. They are not out of reach today, and they are increasingly cheaper. There's no rason for that to change. Sure, the relative price of a common desktop computer as compared with a dumb computer may rise, but its absolute price doesn't have to, and in fact, probably will go down.

uncloned · December 08, 2009, 14:59:24

PPH - don't forget these things are cheap because they sell lots of them.

When the sales go down - they will become expensive.

Laptops have outsold desktops for a while now. It is a trend already occurring. Netbooks only accelerates this trend.

uncloned · December 08, 2009, 15:37:35

and in related news...

Google CEO Says Privacy Worries Are For Wrongdoers

"In a surprising statement to CNBC, Google CEO Eric Schmidt told reporter Maria Bartiromo, 'If you have something that you don't want anyone to know, maybe you shouldn't be doing it in the first place.' This will only fuel concerns about Google's behavior as it becomes an ever more powerful gatekeeper of information; though Google says it is aware of these concerns and has taken steps to be transparent to users about the information that is stored."

interview

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/12/07/schmidt_on_privacy/

About behavior

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/12/07/MNMF1AUFBM.DTL#ixzz0Z0vGXnTG

Louigi Verona · December 09, 2009, 06:12:17

QuoteIn short - the days of owing a general purpose computer you can easily modify in software and hardware are probably numbered.

Man, I can see the reasoning behind this, but I do not believe it. It is like saying - the days of love and happiness are over, there will be only doom ahead.

This is never true. People always find ways to stick with freedom. In fact, proprietary software is still around only because so many people are using unlicensed and cracked versions and are actually able to share with one another.

So again, I see where your reasoning goes from and I am not able to counter-argument it, but at the same time I just do not think that general purpose computers will die off. There is also the world of GNU/Linux which is a very strong culture, in fact, getting stronger every day. And large companies find it harder and harder to make money without proclaiming war on its customers whom they call "consumers".

uncloned · December 09, 2009, 12:45:02

when something new is in the new equipment, like for instance the switch from analog to digital tv in the USA, the change will happen. How many people do you know still use analog phones?

I sincerely hope I'm wrong about the demise of non-cloud computing - but I doubt it.

If I'm wrong it does mean the rational view of intellectual property rights prevailed.

Louigi Verona · December 09, 2009, 16:02:12

What you say about analogue and digital is true. But in case of cloud computing it is not so straightforward. It is not a step from a simpler technology to a better one - it is more a different approach to the same, slowly developing technology - developing not in a sense of innovation, but in terms of scale - better connections, better processors, more memory, etc.

And because going for a desktop environment or cloud environment is basically using the same technology in different ways, people now have a choice. In the analogue-digital situation people had less space for choice, since digital in certain domains was much better. With cloud vs desktop the pro and cons are not that obvious.

Of course, like yourself, I am against cloud computing.
Cloud computing basically puts the person in an even more proprietary position than with using proprietary software. Cloud computing is absolute proprietary software. And it is only convenient to organizations running the cloud.

uncloned · December 09, 2009, 16:10:43

Quote from: "Louigi Verona"Cloud computing is absolute proprietary software. And it is only convenient to organizations running the cloud.

and therein lies the big incentive - and that is what concerns me.

Louigi Verona · December 09, 2009, 16:49:38

I agree. And with a colossus like Google nobody knows how far it will go - I mean, an offer of free laptops is groundbreaking.

PPH · December 09, 2009, 23:48:13

Quote from: "uncloned"PPH - don't forget these things are cheap because they sell lots of them.

I agree that the fact that these things are produced in large quantities may cause them to be cheaper because of economies of scale. However, that's not the only reason: other reasons are technological progress and better methods of production.

Also, you're saying demand will drop. All things being equal, a drop in demand causes prices to fall, not to increase (although if the demand drops too much, after the stock is sold, no more of the good will be produced). So, the prices are not likely to increase.

A netbook is different from a notebook. A notebook is basically a portable desktop computer. People who buy notebooks have different reasons from those who buy netbooks.

uncloned · December 09, 2009, 23:56:42

a drop in demand only goes so far in deflating prices - once stability is reached at the new lower level the old profit margin will not suffice to support manufacturing anymore. The economy of scale disappears... The item then becomes a specialty item and the higher cost is presented to the consumer. This indeed happened to vinyl record players in the US during the 90's - the only record players you could find were very expensive and they were hard to find to boot. Now..... of course the market has re-emerged and so has the product.

So there is a direct example.

PPH · December 11, 2009, 13:05:12

Quote from: "uncloned"a drop in demand only goes so far in deflating prices - once stability is reached at the new lower level the old profit margin will not suffice to support manufacturing anymore. The economy of scale disappears... The item then becomes a specialty item and the higher cost is presented to the consumer. This indeed happened to vinyl record players in the US during the 90's - the only record players you could find were very expensive and they were hard to find to boot. Now..... of course the market has re-emerged and so has the product.

So there is a direct example.

That was because vinyl records were not made anymore. So, the supply was fixed. I don't know the details of the story, but from what you say, it seems the high prices of vinyl records caused entrepreneurs to start manufacturing them, and the prices dropped again. Right?

What I mean in general is this: some people want cloud computing, others want powerful computers. The market will provide for both kinds of consumers.

uncloned · December 11, 2009, 13:10:27

Yes, that's the point....

when people no longer buy desktop computers this will happen to that product as well. Remember that laptop sales are more than desktop sales - happened a couple years ago and the trend is predicted to accelerate.

and just for preciseness - I'm talking about record players - mine broke in the early 90's and I was SOL.

PPH · December 12, 2009, 21:20:08

Quote from: "uncloned"Yes, that's the point....

when people no longer buy desktop computers this will happen to that product as well. Remember that laptop sales are more than desktop sales - happened a couple years ago and the trend is predicted to accelerate.

and just for preciseness - I'm talking about record players - mine broke in the early 90's and I was SOL.

Yeah, I realized the (about the players) later, but you got the idea

Anyway: maybe desktop computers disappear, but because they are replaced by laptops, which are basically the same thing, only portable.

What I see is a trend towards specialization of computers: instead of having one type of computer for everything there are many: smartphones, e-readers, laptops, netbooks. So, each person will have what best serves her needs. Some may use cloud computing. Others, like you and me, won't. Maybe we will use laptops instead of desktops. But laptops will play the same role as desktops.

And I don't think Google has the power to pour cloud computing down everyone's throats. It doesn't matter how big Google is: to succeed, it must give people what they want (unless it resorts to lobbying so that the State forces things on us).